Sustained Red Sea disruption has led to higher expectations for key container shipping stocks.
Liner operator AP Moller-Maersk and tonnage provider MPC Container Ships (MPC) are deemed potential beneficiaries.
Container freight and charter rates have been higher than expected this year.
If the market remains high through to the third quarter, Maersk earnings could exceed $8bn this year, according to Clarksons Securities — far more than consensus Ebitda estimates of $5bn.
Clarksons Securities expects the unchanged situation in the Red Sea means Maersk might revise its guidance upward during its earnings report on May 2.
The investment bank argues that Maersk could reveal Ebitda in the first and second quarters in the region of $2.5bn, up from consensus estimates for $1.57bn in the first quarter.
But freight rates on major East-West trades remain strong, despite falling since the beginning of the year.
If the rate correction is delayed to the third quarter, annual Ebitda for 2024 “could potentially exceed $8bn, significantly outperforming current expectations”, Clarksons noted.
MPCC upgrade
Fearnley Securities has raised its 2024 and 2025 estimates for MPC because of higher contract renewal expectations.
That is largely due to feeder charter rates up 45% in the year to date.
The longer charter periods are likely to boost earnings in the second half of 2024 and early 2025, it notes.
The Hamburg-based shipowner recently sold the 3,586-teu AS Nadia (built 2007) and 1,496-teu AS Ragna (built 2009) and is expected to keep selling vessels.
