AP Moller-Maersk shares gained upward momentum this morning after the liner giant lifted its full-year profit guidance.
It came amid a wider stock market selldown that affected shares in Asia and Europe on Tuesday.
Copenhagen-based Maersk told investors last night that underlying Ebitda for 2024 would come in between $11bn and $11.5bn, up from a previous forecast of between $9bn and $11bn.
It upgraded its expectations on the back of strong third-quarter results, combined with firm container market demand and the continuation of the Red Sea crisis.
According to preliminary unaudited figures for the third quarter, underlying Ebitda was $4.8bn and underlying Ebit was $3.3bn.
Maersk Class B shares traded about DKK 10,700 ($1,553) in Copenhagen.
Arctic Securities said the “trading update should certainly help to re-rate the stock”.
The broker recommends “buy” with a target of DKK 11,948.
Fearnley Securities said: “Maersk provided a robust 3Q trading update.”
Container futures have been rising for the past week and with contract renewal season approaching, liners should have a sound position in the negotiations, according to the investment bank.
It said: “Maersk estimates 6% volume growth in 2024, which coupled with elevated sailing speeds should mean the market could stay fairly balanced in 2025 (hence, gradual decline in rates into 2025 as slower sailing and volume growth can absorb the bulk of deliveries).”
Fearnleys said there may be upside to consensus 2025 estimates as current Maersk estimates imply that market rates will dive in the new year.
Fearnleys has a “buy” recommendation for Maersk and a target price of DKK 14,900.
DNB Markets said earnings are likely to peak in the third quarter.
Therefore the bank sees “limited support” for positive long-term estimate revisions since the updated full-year guidance implies a “negative momentum” with a $2bn decline in Ebitda quarter on quarter for the fourth quarter.
DNB has a “hold” recommendation and a share target price of DKK 11,500.
Maersk will release the full report for the third quarter on 31 October.
