Harry Vafias, chief executive, StealthGas:

“Last year was one of the worst years for shipping on record. All segments suffered sharp freight rate and asset value declines in 2016, except tankers, which saw reductions but not as severe as the other segments.

Now for 2017, most people agree that in general it will be a better year for all shipping segments, maybe with the exception of containerships.

Bulkers will do better, especially the smaller sizes. Q1 is expected to be weak, affecting mainly capesizes, but that might lead again to, hopefully, more ships being scrapped. Tankers will be about the same as 2016 but the million-dollar question is what will happen with the OPEC cut, and if the other producers will make up the shortfall. In addition, will all the OPEC participants keep their promises and indeed reduce production?

Containerships will be facing the perfect storm, with increased idle periods, more lay-ups and continued deliveries of bigger vessels.

Also, with the recent mergers there are less and less charterers and an oligopoly is being created.

LNG vessels will surely do better in 2017, helped by additional new projects coming online and the reduction of newbuilds.

LPG vessels will also do better but the oil price is a big factor here. If the price remains above $60 per barrel, then freight rates have a better chance of firming — coupled also with, hopefully, more scrapping and less ships on order.

Last but not least is offshore. For this segment, oil price is absolutely crucial, as most projects are not viable at prices below $60 to $70 per barrel. 2017 is expected to be fairly similar for these vessels as it was [in 2016] — in other words, pretty bleak.”

 

Mads Peter Zacho, chief executive, J Lauritzen:

“In the dry bulk market, we are pleased to see the recent upturn in demand for transportation of grain and fertiliser in the Atlantic.

We also note the recent improved sentiments among our clients, reflected in a willingness to take longer positions than we have experienced in the early part of 2016.

However, we remain concerned about the slowdown in scrapping since the second quarter of 2016, as well as the large number of scheduled deliveries, particularly in the first quarter of 2017.

In the market for smaller gas carriers, we note that period fixing is slowly recovering, with higher rates and longer periods. In general, we foresee that demand for smaller gas carriers will be driven by inter-regional trade in petrochemical gases, as well as intra-regional distribution of LPG and petrochemical gases.

However, supply growth is also, in 2017, expected to be stronger than demand growth, primarily due to scheduled strong deliveries in the 13,000-cbm to 23,000-cbm segment.”

 

Jacques de Chateauvieux, principal, Bourbon Group:

Jacques de Chateauvieux has a guardedly optimistic outlook for dry bulk. “The improvements we have seen in the dry bulk level might stand in 2017, maybe not quite as high as now,” he said.

“But what we must hope is that the level will not restrain them from scrapping, but will continue to restrain them from newbuilding orders. If scrapping continues and there is no stupid ordering, 2017 could be a better year than 2016.”

The VLGCs and other more specialised gas carriers in his Evergas fleet are less exposed to market volatility. “In the gas sector, we are more contract related,” he said, but declines to comment on the situation of customer Oriental Energy, whose long-term contracts with other owners have earned headlines.

De Chateauvieux finds no basis for speculating about an offshore recovery. “In offshore, the question is are oil companies going to continue their no-investment policies? Even they have not made up their minds, so any prediction by others is a crystal ball. The oil price will have to stay at least where it is today for the oil companies to begin to make new investments.”