Japan could lose its pole position as the world’s top LNG importer to China as early as 2022, according to new analysis by Wood Mackenzie.
By then the UK-based consultancy expects Japan’s LNG imports to decline 12% to 72.8 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) then compared to 2018, while China’s import volume will rise 37.5% to 74.1mmtpa.
Wood Mackenzie said the decline in Japanese imports will be driven by competition from coal, nuclear and renewables in the power sector and slow macroeconomic growth.
“While LNG demand is declining, Japanese imports will remain above 70 mmtpa through much of the 2020s,” said senior analyst Lucy Cullen.
“It will remain the second largest LNG consumer in the world until at least 2040, with demand still exceeding 60 mmtpa.
“As such Japan still provides ample opportunities for LNG sellers, particularly as existing contracts expire.”
Despite losing its leadership position, Wood Mackenzie said Japanese buyers will “continue to take a lead in contracting innovation with developments such as hybrid deals, coal indexation, joint procurement and carbon neutral cargoes”.
As several long-term contracts wind down from the early 2020s and with gas and power market liberalisation underway, this innovation will provide buyers more leverage and opportunities in future contracting discussions, it added.
Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie said ensuring security of supply through diversity of supply sources will remain a primary concern.
“Japanese buyers should continue to lead the market in sourcing LNG from new supply regions,” it said.
Japan has remained an outlier as a developed power market that has still prioritised construction of new coal capacity, said Wood Mackenzie.
Opinions on coal within Japan vary widely with pro-coal policy targets misaligned with public sentiment and corporate and investment activities.
“Despite sustained low LNG spot prices, Japan’s electricity market does not favour coal to gas switching on a wide scale,” it said.
“The country remains well-contracted in LNG to the early 2020s as US and Australian supplies ramp-up.
“As a result, the average cost of gas for Japanese utilities remains well above spot price and coal is still the cheapest form of electricity generation after nuclear and renewables on a short-run marginal cost basis.”
Under Japan’s 5th Strategic Energy Plan, the government aims to decrease gas and coal generation down to 27% and 26% shares, respectively and offset with greater low-carbon nuclear and renewable generation.
“The tide appears to be turning with increasing restrictions on financing and building coal. As such, we expect this policy target and such a robust share of coal in the generation mix will be increasingly difficult to sustain. This would improve the outlook for LNG,” added Cullen.
On the nuclear front, Japan restarted five plants in 2018 alone, with the next restarts scheduled for the mid-2020 and 2021.
Wood Mackenzie said this will put downward pressure on LNG import requirements in the early 2020s, although nuclear outages remain a risk in this period if anti-terrorism measures are not met on time.
“We assume 15 reactors will be back online by 2030, accounting for 12% of power generation, much lower than the official target of 20-22%,” said Cullen.
“While nuclear restarts generally dampen gas generation, our lower nuclear number implies a more optimistic view of LNG demand compared to the government.”
