Ship prices may rise slowly amid today's low inflation, but pending environmental regulations place a cloud of mystery over any forecasts, says Greek shipowner Peter Livanos.
Come 1 January 2020, IMO regulations will limit ship exhaust sulphur content to 0.5%.
The International Maritime Organization will also place further limits on vessels' greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 and 2050.
"The big question right now is what are the new regulations around shipping, particularly with environmental regulations, what they're going to do for the requirement of new ships being built," Livanos, owner of Greek shipping company Ceres Hellenic, said today during a talk at Marine Money's annual New York conference.
Livanos was being interviewed by Michael Tusiani, chairman emeritus of Poten & Partners during a "Captains of Industry" chat. Tusiani rattled off $200m as the average price for today's ship.
Livanos mentioned boxships being modified to run off LNG instead of fuel oil to meet IMO 2020 as one example of how ship prices will be impacted.
He said the price gains should come about slowly because of today's low rate of inflation.
"We are in a period of global low inflation, so it's not unusual that ship prices will basically track with the lack of inflationary pressures around the world," he said.
"I think they will rise but I don't think they will rise dramatically," he said.
He said shipyards' reduction of newbuild capacity may contribute to higher prices by lowering vessel supply.
