The eventual cost of releasing a Navibulgar bulker hijacked off Somalia could be pivotal to the future of piracy in the region, says the European Union naval mission.

The 41,600-dwt bulker Ruen (built 2016) was captured in December in the first successful seizure by pirates in the region since 2017.

The outcome of the case will determine if piracy remains a profitable venture, according to the EU’s anti-piracy mission Atalanta.

“Should piracy prove lucrative in this instance, the conclusion of the monsoon season may herald a resurgence in pirate activities,” it said.

The Ruen was boarded on 14 December by a group of six people, 1,300km off Somalia. The Malta-flagged vessel had a cargo of metals and 18 seafarers on board — eight Bulgarian citizens, nine from Myanmar and one Angolan.

The seafarers initially managed to lock themselves up in the citadel, but the pirates were able to break in and pulled the crew out.

The state of negotiations is not known, but the last signals from ship tracking data a month ago showed the vessel close to Somalia’s Puntland coast.

Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov said on 17 December that he was expecting ransom negotiations to begin soon. Four days later, Bulgarian News Agency BTA cited Denkov as saying that “negotiations for the release” of the ship and its crew “are continuing”.

The Atalanta mission said it is highly probable that at least two armed groups of pirates have the “intent and capability” to launch attacks. The comments echoed those made by the British authorities about the threat.

It said there was a significant likelihood that other groups are searching for opportunities to target vessels.

“The most likely scenario is that the pirates are operating from mother boats, searching for targets in areas where the sea conditions allow for boarding,” Atalanta said.

“These remote locations are also less likely to be patrolled by international forces. The pirates approach vessels to assess whether there is an armed security team on board.”

It said it had confirmed nine hijackings or attempted boardings since 24 November. The uptick in piracy has coincided with Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Three raids were foiled last weekend against fishing boats from Iran and Sri Lanka, leading to the release of 42 seafarers and the capture of 14 Somali pirates.