Shipping urged to do more on carbon capture as COP28 diverts from fossil fuels

The United Nations’ global climate change summit in Dubai has ended with a call to industries such as shipping to rapidly expand carbon capture technologies as part of the shift from fossil fuels.

The final agreement of the often-rancorous two-week summit was signed off on Wednesday, with demands of businesses to accelerate the production of low-carbon hydrogen that will be used for the new generation of shipping fuels.

There was no direct mention of shipping in the 21-page final text but signalled that “hard to abate” industries — which included those like shipping where the transition to net zero is most difficult — should collaborate more to promote rapid decarbonisation.

Subscribe to Green Seas

TradeWinds’ weekly newsletter on sustainability and the business of the ocean digs into environmental issues every week in the maritime industries. Get it in your inbox by subscribing.

Sign up now

The statement was greeted with disappointment by many despite the conference hosts hailing the first overt reference in the final text to moving away from fossil fuels. Former US vice president Al Gore called the deal the “bare minimum” with “half measures and loopholes”, while UN Climate Secretary Simon Stiell said that the deal represented a “climate-action lifeline, not a finish line”.

“Now all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes, without delay,” said Stiell.

The final text called for the acceleration of zero-emission technologies including “renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilisation and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production”.

“There’s a sense of urgency, but the magnitude is significant,” Christopher Wiernicki, the CEO of classification society American Bureau of Shipping, told TradeWinds.

“To get to net zero by 2050, we need about 70% zero-carbon fuels and about 30% of carbon-neutral fuels.

“That means 10 to 15 times more renewable energy and 100 times more carbon capture.”

Shipping, with its own global regulator, the International Maritime Organization, will now step up its efforts to find a way to reach net zero by 2050, a process with an estimated cost of $2.1trn according to the World Economic Forum.

Most of that cost will come from ramping up production of green fuels and establishing greener bunkering networks to supply a new generation of ships, with ammonia and methanol-fuelled vessels expected to lead the way.

Industry leaders said their ambition for the summit was to ensure that shipping got its share of clean fuels in the battle for scarce supplies. The International Chamber of Shipping said it wanted to spread the word beyond transport ministries to key government players to ensure that shipping was top of the queue.

The COP28 deal called for a tripling of the use of renewable energy and a doubling of energy efficiency. But a shipping conference hosted by ICS in Dubai highlighted how shipping’s needs would far outstrip even those targets to make zero emissions by 2050 a reality.

A new strategy agreed in July set targets of reducing emissions by at least 20%, striving for 30%, by 2030 and at least 70% with the aim of 80% by 2040.

At least 5% of the energy used by shipping should use zero, or near zero fuels, by 2030, which translates to about 40m tonnes of ammonia or methanol, Lynn Loo, the chief executive of the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation in Singapore, told the conference.

“What does 40m tonnes mean? Well, the world produces 200m tonnes of ammonia today, we trade 20m tonnes on ships … so the number is enormous.”

By 2050, about 50% of the future fuels will need to be transported by ships, according to estimates by the International Renewable Energy Agency.

“On the water, there are about 200 vessels that can transport ammonia. Forty do that continuously … So there’s big growth that needs to happen," said Loo.

The final text of the summit reflected the fears of Opec countries, led by Saudi Arabia, that demands for a “phase-out” of fossil fuels would put the future prosperity of its members at risk.

A leaked letter from the group’s leadership warned that the “undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences”.

It called on delegates to target emissions rather than energy, which would mean promoting carbon capture techniques rather than energy.

The International Energy Agency in October predicted that peak oil would be reached by 2030 with implications for the tanker sector. But Opec has previously said the peak oil would be later, with demand driven by emerging economies in Asia.

“Whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end,” Stiell told the conference.

Mike Davis, CEO of Global Witness, said: “This agreement sends a signal to those thousands of lobbyists who gathered at COP — there is a long and profitable future for their destructive businesses, regardless of what the science tells us.”