Tanker owners will probably have to write 2022 off as merely ‘transitional’, according to French shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS).
The company said in its latest market report that a sustained recovery for the suffering sector may not come until 2023, unless vessel scrapping sees a dramatic upturn.
The Paris-based shop does not see this as likely, however.
BRS said that as the fleet continues to grow, demand for ships will lag pre-pandemic levels across 2022.
“This suggests that fleet-side pressure will remain a going concern throughout the year,” the broker said.
By 31 December, tanker capacity is projected to stand 7.1% above the level at the end of 2019.
But global tanker demand is forecast to lag end-2019 by 0.3%, BRS said.
“All told, this implies that unless scrapping significantly exceeds our expectations, which seems unlikely, 2022 is likely to remain a transitional year for the tanker industry,” the broker added.
“The real, sustained recovery may not arrive until fleet-side pressures ease in 2023, a year which is already scheduled to see a significant slowdown in deliveries,” BRS said.
The company has calculated that the crude tanker fleet of 34,000 dwt or above increased by 87 units or 13.8m dwt in 2021, up 2.3% from 2020.
Fleet supply pressures remain a “millstone” preventing tanker rates from undergoing a sustainable recovery, the broker believes.
Taking into account potential delivery slippage, BRS predicts a net 123 tankers being added to the fleet this year, up 2.4%.
With markets remaining tough and uncertainty ongoing about future emissions regulations, the company is not expecting an order “surge” this year.
The tanker orderbook could drop to just 6.8% of the active fleet at the end of this year, BRS argues.
But scrapping equated to only 43% of new tonnage delivered in 2021.
MR2 ships led the way as 33 units were sent for recycling, although this reflects the fact that the vessel size is the most numerous in the deep-sea fleet.
When comparing demolitions as a percentage of the existing fleet, the nine panamaxes scrapped in 2021 topped the list at 13% of the fleet.
“Two other segments which are falling out of fashion amongst owners, aframaxes and MR1s, saw more than 2% of their fleets demolished last year,” BRS said.
