The respected energy consultants say China’simports will increase to 9.2mb/d within the next seven years. In contrast USimports will shrink to 6.8mb/d.
“Thisdemonstrates the growth of the Chinese market and reliance on oil imports inrelation to the US, whose import requirements have already and will continue todecrease due to a previous weakening in oil demand and growing domestic supply,”Wood Mackenzie said.
“Theopposing trends in crude oil imports will affect the cost to both countries andinter-regional trade flows.”
“By2020, 70% of China's oil demand will come from imports,” said William Durbin,Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based president of global markets
“Wewill therefore see OPEC suppliers, who traditionally focused on the US forcrude sales, compelled to shift their focus towards China."
China’s growth inimport demand can largely be attributed to its domestic oil demand growth,driven by gasoline demand due to the near-exponential increase in cars anddiesel demand related to commercial trucking.
Wood Mackenzie says between 2005 and 2020 Chinawill see the number of vehicles on its roads rise from 20m to 160m.
“China’srefining structure is currently among the most complex in Asia, focused onmedium-sour crude,” says Dr Harold York, principal oils markets analyst at the consultancy.
“Toproduce the oil products in demand, China will therefore look towards OPECbecause medium-sour crude is a growing share of future OPEC supply."
Asa result, between the 2005 to 2020 timeframe, OPEC’s share of Chinese importsis expected to rise from 52% to 66%.
The share of non-OPECimports declined from 48% to 34% to 2012, and is forecast to continue todecline to the end of the decade.
