Tanker tonne-miles are set to grow 3.8% in 2023, according to Clarksons Research.
Managing director Stephen Gordon said in his latest market review that this would be the strongest expansion since 2017.
Trade pattern shifts related to sanctions arising from the Ukraine war are supporting this growth, he said, even with Opec production cuts “dampening” volumes.
“Tankers have seen a strong 2023 so far, supported by the shifts to longer-haul trade and limited fleet growth. Opec+ cuts have led to softer conditions in Q3 but the winter and 2024 outlook remains positive,” Gordon added.
Earnings across the sector have averaged more than $40,000 per day, Clarksons Research calculated.
Conditions across all shipping markets have remained mixed over the past six months, Gordon said, with energy-related shipping performing strongly and weaker conditions across container and dry markets.
The cross-segment ClarkSea Index remained above $20,000 per day in September, 20% above the 10-year trend.
“Despite macroeconomic headwinds, including pressures from inflation, high-interest rates and an uneven Chinese economic recovery, seaborne trade has returned to growth in 2023,” he added.
The company is forecasting a rise of 2% in seaborne trade to 12.3bn tonnes.
Chinese trade volumes have grown firmly, representing the largest contributor to global growth, the company said.
LPG shipping is seeing exceptional conditions and record rates, despite the newbuilding delivery programme, with long-haul US exports and logistical issues at the Panama Canal providing support, Gordon explained.
World fleet is worth $1.4trn
The brokerage is now valuing the world fleet at $1.4trn, with the orderbook worth $350bn.
“Ship financiers have been active but also report strong competition for top-tier clients and significant early repayments,” Gordon added.
In LNG, rates remain strong, with continued newbuilding investment and project sanctioning.
Offshore oil and gas markets are in a “strong” position with day rates equalling 2013 peaks, while car carrier rates remain in record territory amid strong trade volumes, the managing director said.
On the downside, the dry bulk sector has seen subdued conditions, with earnings down 50% on 2022 as demand outside of China stayed soft and congestion eased.
Gordon said there would “hopefully” be a gradual recovery next year.
Container ship markets remain soft with weak volumes, normalised congestion levels and newbuilding deliveries increasing, he added.
