The earnings gap between clean LR2 tankers and aframaxes has hit an all-time high — but could be short-lived.
UK shipbroker Howe Robinson Partners assesses a Middle East to Rotterdam LR2 voyage via the Suez Canal at $115,000 per day due to the threat posed by Houthi attacks on shipping.
Aframaxes are averaging $49,900 per day across a basket of rates, down 2% from Friday.
This $60,000-plus gap is a record, according to consultancy Kpler.
Kpler believes the rate spread will remain until more clean vessels switch back to moving oil products.
Fearnley Securities said that with the massive recent rally in LR2 rates, there should now be increased numbers of ships moving back across to products, applying pressure instead on LR2 numbers.
This should help aframaxes, the investment bank believes.
Price cap effect?
But another factor is at play for the dirty tanker class.
Russian Urals crude is back trading well above the G7 price cap.
According to Norwegian shipbroker Fearnleys, after Western authorities stepped up enforcement of the cap, some shipowners could be shying away from the Russian trade again.
This would increase the tonnage list for the mainstream market, placing more pressure on aframax and suezmax earnings.
Rates for LR2s have come down 17% over the past week to $84,700 per day from the Middle East Gulf to Japan, but they remain 142% higher than a month ago.
