Net refining runs will not increase next year because labour strike-related outages will offset the expected boost in low-sulphur fuel production, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In a new report, the agency said global refining throughput is set to see a quarter-on-quarter fall in the final three months of 2019, due to strikes at refineries in OECD nations.
Global runs are forecast to fall to 82.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first three months of 2020, from 82.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter this year, the report said.
Both figures are below the levels seen in the third quarter of 2019.
"The sharp drop in refining margins in November in all markets revealed the delicate balancing act between global crude oil and product markets," the IEA said.
"Labour strikes in November in several countries were factors in the downward revision to our 4Q 19 throughput forecast, now expected to be flat [year-on-year]."
The IEA expects refining throughput growth to decline by 1m bpd in 2020 overall, following a 200,000-bpd contraction in 2019.
