Strikes and maintenance could just be the start for Libyan oil production troubles.
Following a strike and closures to facilitate much-needed fixes for key infrastructure, Rystad Energy suggested there could be more issues on the way as the country's political troubles continue.
The energy research outfit said production has already been cut 729,000 barrels per day.
"Libyan oil output is already a realised bullish supply-side risk that has been developing since mid-December when it became clear that the 24 December elections would be delayed and the country’s political trajectory left in limbo," Rystad senior oil markets analyst Louise Dickson said.
In late December Libya, which had just over a year ago seen a ceasefire end its six-year civil war, had its elections effectively postponed.
Security forces enlisted to guard the country's oil industry then went on strike over pay, halting production at two fields and closing two ports.
As TradeWinds reported on Tuesday, Libya's National Oil Corp (NOC) said the main crude oil pumping line linking Samah and Al Dhahra fields to Sidra port needed maintenance and that the country would lose out of $107m in oil sales over the week.
Rystad said if that the political standoff between various factions continues "we expect outages to increase, whether due to operations shutting in production to force political outcomes, or if protestors are organised to shut down operations at key ports, as was the case in January 2020".
Following the strike, shipbroker Howe Robinson said cross-Mediterranean aframax rates were under pressure, with some fixtures being cancelled and others failing subjects.
On Thursday, Howe Robinson said rates on that voyage had slipped from Worldscale 87.5 on Tuesday to WS 82.5.
