The tanker market’s so-called “golden age” will not take a hit from a recent spate of tankers orders, French shipbroker BRS Group believes.
The Paris shop tallies 64 tanker newbuilding deals agreed this year for ships of 34,000 dwt and above, meaning 385 units due for delivery until 2027, as owners capitalise on profitable rates.
This represents 7.1% of the existing fleet, a rise from 4.5% at the end of 2022.
But BRS points out that most of these vessels are not coming into service until 2026.
“The picture for 2026 so far looks well-balanced rather than over-supplied,” the broker said.
But this situation could change very rapidly if there is a surge in orders over the coming months, the company added.
However, the level of contracting would need to be “persistently” above the activity seen in April, when 47 tankers were ordered.
A newbuilding “flood” of this magnitude would curb the duration of the potential rate boom, BRS said.
This would mean earnings staying strong next year and in 2025, followed by a drop in 2026.
Tanker demolition will remain low until the new tonnage hits the water, the Paris broker argues.
“Even with relatively low demolition across the medium term, analysis does not suggest that the recent increase in ordering activity is sufficient to derail the golden age,” the company said.
Pressure in the medium term?
But the brokerage does note that, compared to last summer, the orderbook appears “much less anaemic”.
New tonnage now appears far more balanced across the medium term, BRS said.
“In turn, and assuming that tanker demand does not disappoint, this also suggests that unless demolition comes roaring back, any rise in tanker ordering from today’s levels would likely start to put pressure on the fleet towards the medium-term horizon,” the company said.
