Norwegian investor Joakim Hannisdahl has some cheering news for tanker owners: winter is coming and may not end at all in 2024.
His Gersemi Asset Management shipping fund has gone back “all-in” on tanker exposure after selling down ahead of the latest Opec+ cut announcements, he explained.
Hannisdahl said the primary catalyst for increasing Gersemi’s tanker position was the rapid increase in VLCC spot rates.
This was “something which we had expected and were waiting for,” he added.
The usual seasonal tailwinds are expected during the traditional winter market from October to February, the investor argues.
He said: “Although the current winter market could be less profound against the backdrop of supply cuts, we could potentially see a never-ending winter market throughout 2024 as the current systemic undersupply of oil and subsequent inventory draws are unsustainable.”
Tanker tonne-miles are set to grow 3.8% in 2023, according to Clarksons Research.
Managing director Stephen Gordon said in his latest market review that this would be the strongest expansion since 2017.
Trade pattern shifts related to sanctions arising from the Ukraine war are supporting this growth, he said, even with Opec production cuts “dampening” volumes.
Bulkers cut back
“Tankers have seen a strong 2023 so far, supported by the shifts to longer-haul trade and limited fleet growth. Opec+ cuts have led to softer conditions in Q3 but the winter and 2024 outlook remains positive,” Gordon added.
Gersemi has also been adding exposure to the red-hot VLGC market.
But it has further cut back on dry bulk after Golden Ocean Group and Star Bulk Carriers reached Gersemi’s price targets.
This was despite some intra-week trading gains on a volatile capesize spot and forward freight agreement (FFA) market, Hannisdahl said.
