With the earnings gap between LR2s and aframaxes at a record level, market talk has centred on the product tankers switching away from dirty trades to capture high rates.
But what about the crude ships also making the switch to clean cargoes?
Oil consultancy Kpler argues there are as many as 35 aframaxes that could make the move into diesel and jet fuel business over the next two months.
Owners will chase profitability through the switch, the company said.
“Record high LR2 productivity and declining aframax productivity have set the stage for a significant switch from dirty to clean,” Kpler added.
“Analysis of the spread between LR2 and aframax fleet productivity suggests between 15 and 35 vessels could make the switch,” the firm said.
This could help to “ease LR2 rates slightly”, it believes.
TradeWinds reported on Tuesday that LR2s are earning up to $60,000 per day more than aframaxes due to the Red Sea disruption.
UK shipbroker Howe Robinson Partners assessed a Middle East to Rotterdam LR2 voyage via the Suez Canal at $115,000 per day due to the threat posed by Houthi attacks on shipping.
Aframaxes were averaging $49,900 per day across a basket of rates.
Fearnley Securities said that with the massive recent rally in LR2 rates, there should now be increased numbers of ships moving back across to products, applying pressure instead on LR2 numbers.
