The US has become the second largest source of global demand for dirty tanker exports as a result of higher oil production and shifts in trade patterns, according to Bimco.

This higher output from the US since 2013 has pushed crude tanker exports to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2016 to 3.5m bpd during the first eight months of this year, the international shipowners group said.

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“During the first eight months of 2023, US dirty tanker export demand increased 33% year-on-year while the global dirty tanker exports increased only 5%,” Bimco chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen said in a statement.

“Measured in deadweight tonne miles, US exports now account for 14% of global dirty tanker demand. In the future, the US is estimated to contribute even more.”

Oil exports from the US, which is only exceeded by Saudi Arabia in meeting global dirty tanker demand, “have grown particularly fast” into Asia in recent years, he said. The region is the top importer of US oil and accounts for 20% of crude tanker tonnage leaving the US.

“The shift in exports towards East Asia has further added to ship demand growth by increasing average sailing distances by one-third since 2016,” Rasmussen said.

The increased trade with Asia has boosted VLCC demand as these vessels have accounted for 69% of US export deadweight tonne-miles so far this year, up from 59% during the first eight months of 2022, Bimco said.

US dirty tanker exports have grown the fastest into the EU, however, since 2021 due to EU sanctions on Russian oil.

This year, average monthly deadweight tonne miles from the US to the EU have more than doubled since 2021 to make up 43% of all deadweight tonne-miles into the EU, Bimco said. That is up from 2% in 2021.

The US is expected to contribute one-third of the increase in global oil production by 2028, though US refinery runs are forecast to decline during that period, according to the International Energy Agency, Bimco said.

“US seaborne exports and their share of global dirty tanker demand are therefore expected to increase further,” Rasmussen said.