As human activity in the Arctic increases, the importance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is set to grow. But the challenge will be to make it safer and more reliable.
That has been the focus of a feasibility study by the Centre for High North Logistics (CHNL), based in Kirkenes in Northern Norway. The CHNL brings together representation from six countries and provides a model for multinational collaboration that can benefit sustainable ocean governance.
Senior researcher Bjorn Gunnarsson shared some of his key findings with delegates at Nor-Shipping's Agenda Ocean conference.
The research examined not only how to make the NSR more attractive for shipping but also to create value for the Eurasian-Arctic economy.
As well as underlining the economic and strategic importance of the NSR for Russia and Northern Scandinavia, it showed how an improved maritime and logistics system can boost regional development through connecting maritime infrastructure with new railways, river transport and airfields in the Arctic.
Gunnarsson's vision of the future is an integrated Eurasian transport system includes China’s Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the Arctic Corridor project in Scandinavia.
“We were able to identify several factors in the current maritime transport system of the NSR that needed to be modified, changed or added,” he said.
Making the system more sustainable will include changes in the NSR’s overall administration and management, support services and physical infrastructure.
Gunnarsson said the research also provided a detailed analysis of shipping activity along the NSR in 2016 — showing current activity is greater than at any time in the past.
Shipping along the NSR in the coming years and decades will mostly be traffic transporting commodities such as oil, gas, coal, mineral ore and frozen fish from the Arctic to markets in Europe and Northeast Asia.
Inbound transport will be predominantly project and general cargo. Gunnarsson said this has been exemplified in the past two years by shipments to the port of Sabetta on the Yamal peninsula.
International shipping between Arctic ports will also continue to be very important.
The CHNL believes transhipment on the NSR will gradually increase in volume but it will likely not be significant until hubs are established at both its western and eastern gateways. Gunnarsson indicated that will most probably be in the Kirkenes/Murmansk area in the Barents Sea and at some point past the Baring Strait in the east, perhaps in the Aleutian Islands. “We’ve been looking at Dutch Harbour, for example,” he told TradeWinds.
The hubs will be serviced by shuttle vessels sailing on a year-round basis, so shipowners will not have to invest in their own ice-strengthened tonnage. Feederships will deliver cargoes to and from the hubs to their final destination.
The first phase of the research project was financed by Norway’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and South Korea’s Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries and is now being extended. A final feasibility report is currently being worked on. Rosatomflot participated on the Russian side.
A number of concrete suggestions "are already being worked on” as a result of CHNL's recommendations he said, although they will take time and considerable investment.
