Concern over a renewed trade war between the US and China has led DNB Markets to cut its forecasts for AP Moller-Maersk.
Analysts led by Nicolay Dyvik lowered the 2019 and 2020 projections for the Danish container giant ahead of its fourth-quarter report this week.
Dyvik said the main focus on AP Moller’s results would be on the company’s expectations for 2019.
“All eyes are on the 2019 guidance, which could be a wide range due to market uncertainty with trade wars and IMO 2020,” the analyst said in a preview report today.
A cut to the bank’s forecasts for this year and next was tied up in this uncertainty.
DNB Markets projects AP Moller will record adjusted Ebitda of $5.3bn in 2019, down 9% from its earlier estimate but still above the $5bn consensus. For 2020, Ebitda is pencilled in at $5.9bn.
An uncertain outlook for trade growth affects volumes in both the Ocean and Terminals & Towage businesses, Dyvik said.
AP Moller will report its fourth-quarter numbers on Thursday morning, with DNB Markets projecting Ebitda for 2018 of $3.8bn, in line with consensus forecasts.
“The results are likely to be a non-event as investor focus shifts to the 2019 guidance, which we expect to be wide due to uncertainties in global trade for the foreseeable future and disruptive events from IMO regulations starting to have an impact on the industry this year,” Dyvik said.
