DNB Markets has downgraded shares in AP Moller-Maersk amid expectations its third quarter results will miss analysts estimates.
Analysts led by Nicolay Dyvik lowered the Danish conglomerate from buy to hold today, noting its stock has climbed by over a quarter since a high-profile strategic review was launched.
Dyvik and colleagues Jorgen Lian and Petter Haugen are projecting a core operating profit of $1.9bn in the third quarter, 8% below the $2.1bn consensus.
On the bottom line DNB is forecasting a profit of $157m, some way from the $510m consensus.
They explain much of the gap is due to the forecast $130m loss for MaersK Line, for which the market is projecting a $171m profit.
Following a strategic review, the outcome of which was announced in September, Maersk Line will form part of the new Transport & Logistics arm alongside APM Terminals, Damco, Svitzer and Maersk Container Industry.
With the stock up 28% since June’s announcement of the review, DNB Markets says a large part of the short-term potential has already been taken out.
“We believe it could take some time before the oil and oil-related businesses will be separated from Maersk through joint-ventures, mergers, or listing, as each of the divisions is trading at its cyclical low,” the analysts wrote.
“That said, oil peers trading at premium to the forward curve implies the listing of oil business with a strong North Sea focus.”
