At least 70 large LNG carriers have been contracted at shipyards in 2021 — in what is shaping up to be a record-breaking year for orders.
According to TradeWinds records, checked against databases and announcements, at least 19 full-size vessels have been contracted this quarter. This does not include the announced berth declarations by QatarEnergy, as shipbuilding contracts on these ships have yet to be signed.
Together with the 51 orders for large vessels signed in the first nine months of this year, this stacks up at 70 LNG carrier newbuildings.
This excludes small-scale and Medmax-sized vessels, which look set to number at least nine more ships.
At least two of the four main shipyards building LNG carriers hint that there may still be further orders signed before the end of 2021, which could boost the tally further.
Previous peak
Clarksons' Shipping Intelligence Network data shows that the previous peak years for LNG carrier orders were 2004 and 2018, when the number of orders for vessels of 140,000 cbm and over was 68 and 66, respectively.
Industry players pointed out that 2004 was the year when Qatar organised the bulk of its large Q-ship fleet, either through independent owners or by contracting them through its own entities.
This year's apparent record tally appears to have been unexpected.
At the start of 2021, analysts were forecasting a quiet year based on a relatively full orderbook and busy delivery schedule.
Bullish turn
Of the 30 ships ordered in the first half, the bulk were confirmed against contracts with major charterers, with one-third recorded as small-scale vessels or Medmax ships.
But in the past few months, independent shipowners have returned to yards on the back of increasingly bullish market forecasts about LNG demand, a looming vessel shortfall and the rapidly shrinking availability of LNG carrier berth slots.
Market watchers suggest that 2022 is unlikely to prove much quieter for shipyards.
They point to QatarEnergy's massive berth reservation programme for up to 151 LNG carrier newbuildings.
The Middle East producing giant is thought to have firmed up about 14 slots with the four yards it is working with on these. It is expected to marry selected shipowners to them and ink contracts in 2022.
On top of this, there is a volume of project enquiry and ongoing hunger from independent owners. However, some question whether this year's price rises, which have seen the cost of LNG newbuildings increase from about $185m to $220m in a year, may prompt some owners to reassess their plans.
