Russia's Novatek could require up to 30 additional ice-class LNG carrier newbuildings and a raft of conventional vessels if it fulfils its LNG production expansion plans.
Speaking at Novatek's first Arctic LNG Projects Shipowners Conference in Moscow, chairman of the board Leonid Mikelson said the company would produce about 70 million tonnes per annum of LNG by 2030.
He added that this figure will be increased to 91 mtpa by 2035.
Those following Novatek's Arctic LNG shipping business said each additional 1-mtpa of LNG production would require an Arc7 ice-breaking LNG carrier, indicating a need for between 20 and 30 more specialised newbuildings.
Conventional ice-class LNG carriers will also be needed to work with these vessels transshipping cargoes from two Arctic-based floating storage units (FSUs) that Novatek plans to put in place from 2023.
Significant increase
Speaking about the conference, Novatek said: "The created infrastructure and the accumulated unique experience in complex Arctic projects implementation, including hydrocarbons shipping, allow the company to achieve in the near future a significant increase in its LNG production, and subsequently the shipping volumes."
The plans for 2030 will see Novatek more than double its LNG production.
Novatek and its partners are currently producing some 16.5 mtpa from the operational Yamal LNG project.
The company’s second under-construction liquefaction development — Arctic LNG 2 — is currently a three-train project that is due to start up from 2023 with a nameplate capacity of 19.8 mtpa of LNG.
Conference-goers learned that Novatek wants to double the number of trains at Arctic LNG 2 by adding another three gravity-based structure liquefaction units, which would allow it to produce about 40 mtpa at the project on the Gydan Peninsula.
But the company was a little more vague explaining that it will likely add five more LNG trains of about 6 mtpa each to its production portfolio.
Novatek has previously outlined plans for a 20-mtpa Arctic LNG 1 project. Another development — Obsky LNG — looks set to be dedicated to the production of ammonia, hydrogen and methanol.
Burgeoning fleet
By 2025, Novatek will have access to 36 Arc7 LNG vessels. These comprise the existing 15 Arc7 vessels that are chartered in long term for the Yamal LNG project and the additional, on-order 21 Arc7s that were contracted against Arctic LNG 2 business.
The company has this year also secured eight Arc4 LNG carriers that have been ordered as newbuildings by three shipowners.
There was also talk at the conference of the opening up of the Arctic's Northern Sea Route (NSR) to year-round shipping navigation.
Novatek wants to see the NSR open year round from 2023, when its first giant size FSU is due to be operational in Obskaya Bay. The company wants the Arc7s to be used to ship cargoes from the two liquefaction plants to the FSUs in the west near Murmansk and Kamchatka in the east with the Arc4 vessels shipping them onwards.
But Rosatom said it plans to start regularly escorting vessels through the NSR on a year-round basis from 2025.
