Clarksons Research has logged shipping’s biggest tonne-mile growth in 14 years as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea change trade patterns.
The UK company is forecasting an increase of 5.1% in distances travelled for 2024, against 2.3% in terms of tonnes of cargo.
This would mean an addition of 3.2trn tonne-miles, against a rise of 2.5trn in 2023.
This is the most since 2010’s post-financial crisis rebound, when 3.5trn tonne-miles were added as Chinese state stimulus drove rapid growth in raw materials trade.
Vessels carried an extra 723m tonnes of cargo that year.
“Of course, 2025 could be a very different case,” Crowe said.
“If disruption in the Red Sea were to end, the trend could reverse with ‘lost miles’ limiting tonne-mile expansion. Nonetheless, this year, seaborne demand is once again benefiting from volumes going the extra mile.”
The researcher found the 10-year average of additional tonne-miles is 1.3trn.
Considering both 2023 and 2024 combined, the extra distance of 5.7trn tonne-miles beats any consecutive years except 2010 and 2011 (5.9trn tonne-miles).
And Crowe believes the 2024 total could be bigger still if Red Sea disruption endures for the full year.
Record total?
“We estimate that could take added tonne-miles to 3.6trn, growth of 5.8%,” he said.
Growth in 2023 was driven largely by shifting energy shipment patterns caused by the war in Ukraine.
Now reroutings away from the Red Sea have been added.
Arrivals at the Cape of Good Hope were up 90% in June, compared with the first half of December last year.
The largest impact is in containers, with a 12% teu-mile rise as 690 ships routed around South Africa, Clarksons Research said.
Oil products and LNG shipping have had rises of 5% in tonne-miles.
But there has also been firm growth in other key long-haul trades, Crowe added.
Dry bulk has been supported by Atlantic exports of ore, coal and grain to Asia, while crude cargoes are heading out on long voyages from the Americas.
