Shipowners snookered by weak rates are well placed to continue demolition efforts, Clarksons says.
The world’s largest shipbroker counts 206.6m gross tons sent for scrap since the beginning of 2009 – but over 5% of the world fleet is in the demolition zone based on present dynamics, it calculates.
In a report, Trevor Crowe explains 8% of capesize bulkers and 6% of the panamax fleet are above the present average scrapping age in the sectors.
In the boxship market 10% of the vessels under 3,000-teu are older than the average container vessel being packed off to the breakers.
Overall, Clarksons identified 75 million gross tons of capacity in the world fleet above present scrapping age, equal to 6% in total.
“At 2016’s rate of demolition, that’s another 2.4 years’ worth,” wrote Crowe.
The researcher, who compared the demolition activity with a snooker player building momentum on a break, said: “Obviously freight and scrap market conditions and regulatory influences will have a big say.
“However, it looks like, in today’s terms at least, the industry might be in a good position to keep the break going.”
Incoming rules of ballast water management have been identified as a further boost to demolition activity.
Greg Lewis of Credit-Suisse says the new rules should offer “marginal” help to the supply picture.
He counts 90% of the tanker fleet, 75% of bulkers and 85% of boxships were delivered before 2013 and a likely require upgraded ballast water technology.
