Stainless steel tankers are going after chemical and vegoil cargoes as rates for carrying clean petroleum products remain in the doghouse, Drewry says in its chemical forecaster report.
But the consultancy says the current market cannot support all the current shipowners.
The London-based maritime consultancy says chemical and vegoil cargoes will "moderately support global seaborne trade, causing the shipping fleet trading in chemicals and vegoils to expand."
Drewry says the chemical tanker fleet saw net fleet growth of 36 vessels in the first quarter, a 1.3% gain. Of those, the chemicals and vegoil fleet expanded by 26 and clean petroleum products fleet by 10.
That ratio flipped from a year earlier when nine vessels were added for chemicals and vegoils and 19 for the CPP trade, "indicating the current mood of the market," Drewry said.
And more vessels dedicated to the chemicals and vegoils trade are on the way. The stainless steel tanker market will add 22% of existing capacity over the next three years, with 144 new ships totalling 3.4 million-dwt delivered by 2020. Drewry says the chemical tanker supply will grow 1.7% by the end of this year.
“Future deliveries will mainly be for the chemical and vegoil carriers as the clean petroleum products fleet is currently oversupplied,” said Hu Qing, Drewry’s lead analyst for chemical shipping. “By 2018 the chemical- and vegoil-carrying fleet will outpace its CPP counterpart in terms of growth."
But those chemical and vegoil trade lanes are going to be more crowded, particularly with ships from Odfjell. The Kristian Morch-led company has laid out plans to build up a 100-strong chemical tanker fleet, up from 75 currently. Their geographic reach means Odfjell will likely drive out smaller shipowners in the space, Drewry says.
"In this current scenario major players can only revive the market through consolidation, while the smaller players will find it hard to survive,” Qing said.
