A weak winter market has analysts downbeat on John Fredriksen’s tanker and bulker outfits.
ABG Sundal Collier analyst Petter Haugen noted on Tuesday that consensus fourth-quarter Ebitda for tanker owner Frontline had dropped by 24% from the end of August, while bulker owner Golden Ocean slipped 23%.
“Rate developments in both the tanker and dry bulk markets [quarter to date] have fallen short of expectations due to the lack of a typical seasonal increase,” he said.
Frontline’s Ebitda figures were expected to come in at $409m over the summer, but have since fallen to $302m.
Golden Ocean is expected to report $123m in Ebitda for the fourth quarter, versus expectations of $159m earlier in the year.
Rates typically climb at the end of the year in both sectors, but this year the cyclical upturn has not yet come.
For tankers, weak demand out of China has kept a lid on rates, while smaller bulkers have had to compete against several new deliveries.
In late trading on Tuesday, Frontline’s Oslo-listed shares dipped NOK 3.60 ($0.32) to NOK 208, continuing a downward trend that began in early October when shares were at NOK 267.
Golden Ocean shares have been much more volatile, rising to NOK 140.80 by the end of September, before finding a floor in late October, then peaking and falling again.
Its shares gained NOK 0.15 on Tuesday to NOK 122.55.
Frontline will report third-quarter earnings on Wednesday and Golden Ocean on Thursday.
