Forward freight curves for product tankers indicate markets are pricing in only short-term disruption to Red Sea shipping, analysts and brokers believe.
Rates for clean carriers are still increasing. The Baltic Exchange’s assessment of Middle East to Japan LR2 voyages is at an eye-catching $101,000 per day, or around Worldscale 350 — up 3% from the previous day and a staggering 104% in a week.
Investor Joakim Hannisdahl of Gersemi Asset Management said the rate is the second-highest ever, surpassed only by the WS500 during the Opec+ price war in 2020.
Howe Robinson Partners was quoting rates of up to $110,000 for LR2s earlier this week.
Fearnley Securities analysts Oystein Vaagen and Fredrik Dybwad pointed to the Middle East to Japan forward freight curve for LR1s, which shows a sharp upward move over the last two weeks, in line with spot rises.
But beyond the coming three to four months, changes appear much smaller.
According to sister shipbroker Fearnleys, this suggests most players “believe” the Houthi disruptions to shipping should not last long.
Earnings forecasts to be revised
Analysts’ earnings estimates will increase as rates spike.
Fearnley’s top picks remain Hafnia and Scorpio Tankers.
MR tankers in the Atlantic saw a 13% drop to $36,500 per day, with some ships ballasting from the US.
Vessels in the Pacific increased by 17% to $56,800 per day.
On the crude side, the expected seasonal softness continued, Fearnley Securities said. Rates came off between 3% and 5%, depending on the vessel size.
